- Prediction time! A week before the election:
House of Representatives: Republicans gain 52 seats. They only need 39 to take back the House. Some crazies think Republicans will take 60 to 70 seats, but I don't see it. Republicans gained 54 seats in 1994. The economy is worse now than it was in 1994, but there are fewer vulnerable Democrats in the house today. The largest swing in American history was the 1932 elections. In the midst of the Great Depression, Democrats gained 97 seats!
Senate: Republicans gain 8 seats, not quite enough to re-gain the senate, making the Senate a 50/50 tie. Biden breaks the tie. Here are the closest races to watch on election night, with my prediction for each one:
Pennsylvania: R-Toomey wins by 5%
West Virginia: R-Raese wins by 1%
Illinois: R-Mark Kirk by 2%
Kentucky: R-Rand Paul by 4%, despite the fact that Paul is a bit touched in the brain.
Colorado: R-Buck by 3%
Nevada: R-Angle by 1%. Against any other opponent, Reid would lose by 20%. Angle's a good kid though. She deserves to win.
California: D-Boxer by 3%
Washington: D-Murray by 2%. If Rossi can't win the first two times, he ain't gonna pull it off the third time.
Alaska: R-Joe Miller by 1%
Jay Cost, a political commentator I have mentioned previously on this website, gives his prediction:
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