- I havent written much about politics. Naturally, I dont like to write about politics when my candidates are going to lose.
Republicans have dominated the presidential election the past four decades. We have owned the presidency for 28 out of the past 40 years. The only other time Republicans have dominated the presidency in such a fashion was from 1860 to 1932, when only two democratic presidents were elected. Grover Cleveland won in 1884, lost in 1888, and won again in 1892. Woodrow Wilson won in 1912, because Teddy Roosevelt ran as an independent and split the Republican votes with Taft.
This had to happen eventually. In a representative democracy, no party can hold on forever. Honestly, did any of you really think Republicans would never lose the presidency ever again? It's just not realistic to think like that.
I think McCain ran a fine campaign. He was our best option out of the Republicans who decided to run in 2008. He lost because people HATE GEORGE BUSH! It's that simple. His 25% approval rating sunk Republicans this year. Obama would have beaten almost any Republican in 2008.
My final prediction: Obama 52, McCain 48. Electoral votes: Obama 286, McCain 252. Obama wins the following battleground states:
Virginia (huge demographic shift in Virginia. It aint a red state anymore. Liberals from the urban areas of Washington DC, New Jersey and Maryland have moved into Virginia)
Colorado (also no longer a red state. Bad economy and a big environmental push.)
McCain wins the following battleground states:
The above states are the only close states. If anyone tells you otherwise, they are a dirty, no-good liar.
The democrats will gain 22 house seats. They will also gain 7 senate seats, allowing Republicans to keep the filibuster. Fortunately Coleman in Minnesota will squeak out a victory against Al Franken. Unfortunately Sunnunu will lose in New Hampshire. Sunnunu was a darn good senator. He doesnt deserve this.
For goodness's sake, ignore the exit polls today! They always heavily favor the democrats. In 2004, the exit polls made it appear that Kerry would win in a landslide. Exit polls are done in the morning and afternoon. Democrats are more likely to have jobs with irregular hours, or not work at all, so democrats are the people who vote during the day. Republicans vote after they leave work. I guarantee the exit polls will show a 20-point Obama blowout. That cant actually happen, so ignore them and go vote!
Indiana will be the first state to close its polls. Watch the numbers from Indiana, but not until roughly 90% of the votes are in. The Republican votes in Indiana come from the rural areas (like Bloomington, Fort Wayne, etc.) These votes come in late. If McCain is up by 5 or more in Indiana, it could be a good night for him. If he wins Indiana by less than 5, he is in deep trouble. Remember, Obama is from Chicago.
How strong will the Bradley effect be? My guess is 2 to 3 points. Some think (including a few of my friends) that it will be six to seven points.
If you need some McCain optimism, here it is...in every single democratic primary this election year, Obama polled higher than the actual vote totals. According to the polls, he was favored by six or more in PA, NH and OH. He lost all three of those by significant numbers to Hillary Clinton. Democrats tend to be more open-minded than Republicans or independents, so if the Bradley effect is so pronounced in the democratic primaries, then it should be even more so in the general election.
I think my biggest regret about tonight's election is that people will claim America is now a center-left country, after 28 years (starting with Reagan) of being a center-right country. I truly believe America is still a center-right country. Once again, people are voting for Obama because they HATE GEORGE BUSH! Ugh.
I like Georgie. I think history will be kind to him. All two-term presidents who serve the full two terms are considered successful presidents.
Here is a link to a very useful map showing when the polls close in each state:
- Intelligent computers put to the test:
- Dont like paying for wi-fi access at a hotel or airport? Try this trick:
- Usain Bolt smashed the record for the 100 meter dash at the Olympics last summer, and he slowed down towards the end of the race! However, he is no where near the human limits for speed potential:
-Frank Rosenthal passed away. He inspired the movie Casino:
-Jack the Ripper finally revealed?
Jack the Ripper
-Largest stadiums in the world:
- World's first double-arm transplants. Yes, that's right, they gave a guy two real arms, and they actually work!
-Berkeley Breathed (I still havent found his real name) is once again ending the comic-strip Bloom County. The first time he pulled the plug on Opus, it made me very sad. This time, I say good riddance. His strips from the past several years have all been pale imitations of his salad days. He never should have brought Opus back in the first place: