- The election is 12 days away (November 2nd.) I feel good about Georgie's chances. I certainly feel better about this presidential election than the last one. Kerry's gaffe in the third debate cost him dearly. Now Bush has the lead, and Kerry hasnt dented it. Out of the 15 national polls released after the third debate, Bush leads in 10 of them. His lead, in these polls, ranges from 2 to 8 points. Of the five other polls, the candidates are tied. Kerry doesnt lead in a single poll!
If the election is close, keep your eyes on Ohio. Bush won Ohio by 5 points in 2000, but the unemployment rate is 6.2% there. That's .8 higher than the national average. Five recent Ohio polls have Kerry leading two of them, and Bush leading three of them. Bush is traveling to Ohio with the Governator during the final weekend of the campaign, to shore up support. If the election is a nail-biter, Ohio will be the Florida of 2000. You wont be able to throw a rock in Ohio, without hitting a lawyer.
I have Bush at 51% in the popular vote, and Kerry at 47%. I give Bush 284 electoral votes, to Kerry's 254. That might seem close, but Bush has more options for getting to the magical 270 number. Kerry must win Florida and Ohio. Bush must win Florida (duh!) Bush can lose Ohio and still win, but his chance of victory is much lower if he loses the Buckeye state. Right now I am giving Bush all the states he won four years ago, except I am giving New Hampshire to Kerry, and Wisconsin to Bush.
If Bush maintains this lead up to Halloween, then only an October surprise can save Kerry. Bush has been president for 4 years, and the democrats truly loathe him. If they had nasty dirt to spill on the president, they would have used it by now. If there is an October surprise, it's more likely to hit Kerry, than Bush.
I might update this webpage one more time before the election, to give my final predictions. If Kerry suddenly surges to the lead, then dont expect an update. I am only human, after all. Writing good news for Kerry would simply be too painful.
I am giving the republicans a +3 seat gain in the Senate. There are about a dozen senate races I will watch closely on election night. If I update this webpage again before the election, I will provide a list of the close senate races, for readers to follow.
Enough rambling. I dont link to the LA Times very often, but I found a wonderful page on their website for doing electoral calculations. Take a peek. Clicking on each state will assign it to a candidate. After you finish, post your predictions in my comments page. I would love to see how my friends think the election will turn out. Remember, you can post as anonymous. You dont have to register with blogger.com to post a comment:
- The first trailer for Revenge of the Sith will appear on the official Star Wars website November 4th. Paying members of the website will get to see it first. I think Revenge of the Sith will be better than Episode 1, and Episode 2, but it still wont be as good as any film from the original trilogy. My insiders are telling me the dialog is still weak, and the acting is poor. What makes it better are the situations and dynamics between the characters. Here is a link with all the information about the first trailer:
- I am not a fan of the Alien movies, but I have always thought that their depiction of space-travel is fairly realistic. In the Alien universe, it takes many years to travel from star to star. There is no hyperspace. There is no warp speed. Space travel is slow and tedious. Here is an article about how humans may use hibernation to pass the time while traveling long distances:
- I think the word "genius" is used too lightly in our society. As far as I am concerned, there are only two true geniuses in human history. Albert Einstein, and Wolfgang Amadeus Mozart. Mozart wrote his first piano concerto at the age of 4. His first symphony at the age of 7. His first opera at the age of 11. That would be the equivalent of me writing an early version of Microsoft Windows at the age of 11. Its simply unheard of. These werent lousy compositions either. Orchestras still play his early works, despite being written by a child. Mozart died at the age of 35, which seems young to us, but was near the median age for death in the late 18th century. The cause of his death has always been a mystery. It certainly wasnt caused by Antonio Salieri, the famous composer. Here is an article that proposes to have solved the riddle of Mozart's death: