Big update today. Lots of good stuff...

- The Oscar nominations have been announced. If there is an awards presentation in this country, that is needlessly affected by politics, it's the Oscars. I am happy to announce, however, that this year's nominations seem to be free of politics and political-correctness. I think the nominations this year are rather good. Michael Moore, thankfully was shut-out of the nominations. There is even a rumor floating around Hollywood that the big-wigs who run the movie studios are sick of making movies that only appeal to the "blue states" and want to start making movies that appeal to everyone. Apparently there are a few people in La-la land who prefer to make money. I will believe it when I see it. Anyways, here are my picks for the winners of each major category, and a link to the nominees for all the categories for 2005. This is a tough year to pick. If you scroll down, you will notice that my picks from last year were all correct. There is little chance of that happening this year:

Best Picture: The Aviator
Best Director: Martin Scorsese
Best Actor: Jamie Foxx
Best Actress: Anette Bening
Best Supporting actor: Morgan Freeman
Best Supporting Actress: Cate Blanchett
http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/thr/awards/oscars/2005list.jsp

- Holograms are tough to create in a real-world setting, but a company recently created a machine no bigger than a computer, which creates wonderful holograms. Here is a link explaining how the machine works:
http://times.hankooki.com/lpage/tech/200501/kt2005013117582612350.htm

- Can you beat a polygraph? Here is an article from someone who tried several tips for beating the machine. Perhaps the most interesting information from this article is that the person who invented the lie-detector also created the comic-book character Wonder Woman! Now I know where the golden lasso comes from.
http://www.slate.com/Default.aspx?id=2112734

- Certain people who read this website (and they shall remain nameless) will love the beginning of this next article. In many parts of the developed world, populations are dwindling. The reasons are numerous, and important to all of us. An ancient prophet once wrote that in order for man to ascend to true greatness, he must become extinct. Well, some countries are accidentally fulfilling this prophecy. Their economic and political models are causing their populations to decrease, instead of increase. If a country's laws help its citizens, then naturally a country's population should increase, since its citizens are well-off, and have the necessary resources to bear and care for children. I wrote about this topic several months ago, but this article does a much better job of explaining the situation than the last article I linked.
http://techcentralstation.com/012705D.html

- Happy Groundhog's day! Read the following article to learn more about Groundhog's day, and then read the 2nd article explaining why the movie Groundhog's day is a true gift to humanity (this article completely over-analyzes the Bill Murray classic. I like the movie, but geesh!) By the way, my family has a tradition very similar to Groundhog's day. During the first phone call I receive from my parents on February 2nd, if either my mother or father tells me how "dreadfully disappointed" they are in me, then I know there will be six more weeks of winter.
http://wilstar.net/holidays/grndhog.htm
http://www.nationalreview.com/goldberg/goldberg200502010801.asp

- Enrico Fermi was a famous physicist who helped split the atom, and helped develop the first atomic weapon. He is mostly known for his accomplishments in physics, but he was also a amateur UFO investigator. Fermi proposed the following question..."if there are so many planets and galaxies, then why havent we bumped into any aliens?" This simple question is rather complicated to answer, and is now referred to as The Fermi Paradox. Here is a link explaining the paradox:
http://www.space.com./searchforlife/shostak_paradox_011024.html

- The tsunami in south-east asia last month didnt quite hit my psyche until I read the following article. The earthquake not only increased the speed of rotation for the earth, it also made the earth slightly more round. It was the most powerful earthquake recorded in the past 40 years. That sounds like a big deal to us, but if the earth has been around for over 5 billion years, then how many more powerful earthquakes have occurred, or will occur? The tsunami helped remind me that we live on a spinning globe made of rock and magma that can change unexpectly, just like all things in this universe.
http://news.zdnet.com/2100-9596_22-5536983.html?part=rss&tag=feed&subj=zdnet

I use hotmail for my personal e-mail account that I share with my friends. By only giving my hotmail e-mail address to friends, it helps avoid spam. I also have a yahoo e-mail address that I use for business transactions, or when I need to give an e-mail address to someone outside my circle of friends. My yahoo e-mail address receives over 100 spam e-mails a day. I am a beta-tester for a new e-mail service created by Google. It is called Gmail, and it can store 1 gigabyte (1 billion bytes) of e-mail. If you want to try Google e-mail, send an e-mail to my hotmail account, and I will invite you. People who are already testing the service can invite others to join. It's completely free, and this is the only way that you can participate in the service right now. Whatever e-mail address you pick during the beta-phase of Gmail you can keep during the full-release. Here is a link to the Gmail website:
http://gmail.google.com/

- Time magazine picked George Bush as their person of the year. Its a good pick, and one I can accept, but I would have picked Karl Rove. Karl Rove predicted, over three years ago, that the key to Bush winning re-election was to crank out the base. He knew right after the 2000 election that firing up the Republican base, and increasing the base by appealing to religious conservatives who didnt vote in the 2000 election would get Georgie re-elected. No person in this country has a better understanding of the geo-political trends and demographics shifts in the American electorate than Karl Rove. Not bad for someone who doesnt have a college degree. Here is an article from the Washington Post about Rove:
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/politics/campaigns/wh2000/stories/rove072399.htm

- Here are some predictions for 2005 from the writers and editors at the National Review:
http://www.nationalreview.com/symposium/symposium200412300827.asp

- On July 2nd 1937, Amelia Earhart and her navigator, Fred Noonan, disappeared over the Pacific ocean, between Australia and Hawaii. Numerous explorers, scientists, and treasure-hunters have tried to find her plane, but no one has succeeded. Here is an article about the latest attempt to find her, and what may have actually happened to poor Amelia:
http://www.cnn.com/2004/TECH/science/12/18/hunting.for.earhart.ap/index.html

- On December 17th a movie called "The Aviator" hits the big-screens. It stars Leonardo Dicaprio as Howard Hughes. I am not a fan of Leo's, but I am fan of Martin Scorsese (who directs the film), and I am a huge fan of Howard Hughes. I may be forced to see this movie. Hughes was a world-class engineer, multi-billioniare industrialist, and held all the air-speed records until Chuck Yeager came along. Hughes was the inspiration for Tony Stark, who is the comic-book character Iron Man, and Hughes is certainly an inspiration to me. He was one of the giants of the early 20th century, until he went stark-raving mad, and became more famous for being a recluse, than for his many accomplishments early in his life. Here is a good article about him:
http://www.socalhistory.org/Biographies/h_hughes.htm

- When I watch science-fiction movies or TV shows, it drives me nuts to see characters walking around in space-ships as if they had normal gravity. Even Star Wars doesnt bother to explain this physical impossibility. Well, for 40 years NASA has been working on this problem, and here are some of the ideas they have come up with:
http://www.space.com/businesstechnology/technology/artificial_gravity_041125.html

- While cruising the internet, you may have come across some strange language such as " r u w8tng 4 sum1? " (translated to "are you waiting for someone"), or "joo r d34d foo" (translated to "you are dead fool"). This bizarre syntax is called "l33t speak", and there is a rhyme and reason to it. In the 1980s, hackers would use this language to obscure their websites from search algorithms and government do-gooders. Now people on the internet, and mainly teen-agers, use it express themselves. I never use l33t speak. I find it obnoxious and a perfectly good waste of time. Nevertheless, given my line of work, it helps to know some of the vernacular. Here is a website that explains l33t speak, and how to read it:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/dna/h2g2/A787917

- Georgie wins re-election, Daschle loses re-election, Michigan makes the Rose Bowl, and Dan Rather is out at CBS. What a wonderful month! I figured Gunga Dan would leave CBS late next year, but the Texas Guard fiasco appears to have forced him out several months sooner. If Rather has any saving grace, its his election night quotes. Here is a link to many of the colorful metaphors and similes Gunga Dan used on election night 2004, and 2000:
http://politicalhumor.about.com/library/blratherisms.htm


- What's the deadliest disease to human beings? AIDS? Certain types of cancer? Anthrax? Its none of these. Its rabies. If rabies is left untreated, it is virtually guaranteed to kill you. In the history of recorded medicine, only five people have ever survived rabies without the usual treatment. Of course, rabies is completly curable if you seek medical attention. Here is an article about a young woman who recently survived rabies, and a webpage about rabies:
http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,139500,00.html
http://www.cdc.gov/ncidod/dvrd/rabies/


- NASA has created a new type of airplane engine called a ScramJet (short for Supersonic Combustion Ramjet). Such an engine allows airplanes to fly at ten times the speed of sound! NASA successfully tested it last week. Here is a link to the official NASA website:
http://www.nasa.gov/missions/research/x43-main.html

FINAL ELECTION PREDICTIONS!

- These are my truly honest predictions for the election. It is quite obvious that I am partisan, but I will do my best to tell you what I really think will happen:

BATTLEGROUND STATES:
Florida: Bush 52, Kerry 48
Ohio: Bush 51, Kerry 49
Michigan: Kerry 51, Bush 48
Pennsylvania: Kerry 52, Bush 48
New Hampshire: Kerry 51, Bush 49
Iowa: Bush 51, Kerry 49
Wisconsin: Bush 50, Bush 49
Minnesota: Kerry 50, Bush 49
New Mexico: Bush 52, Kerry 48

Electoral Count: Bush 296, Kerry 242
Popular Vote: Bush 51%, Kerry 48%

I do not believe that Colorado, Nevada, Oregon, New Jersey, Hawaii, or Washington are battleground states.

Here are my predictions for the close senate races:
Florida: Martinez(R) 50%, Castor(D) 48%
South Dakota: Thune(R) 50%, Daschle(D) 49%
Colorado: Salazar(D) 50%, Coors(R) 48%
Oklahoma: Coburn(R) 53%, Carson(D) 46%
North Carolina: Burr(R) 51%, Bowles(D) 48%
South Carolina: DeMint(R) 54%, Tenenbaum(D) 46%
Alaska: Knowles(D) 51%, Murkowski(R) 48%

Republicans gain a seat in Georgia, but lose a seat in Illinois. The Republicans will net 2 seats. The new make-up of the Senate will be 53 Rep, 46 Dem, 1 Independent.


- I should have posted this a few days ago. It would have been more appropriate. In the city of Detroit (where I was born) there was a yearly tradition called Devil's Night. It always took place the night before Halloween. Detroit is the only city in the country that does this. Kids would roam the streets and toilet-paper people's homes, or rub soap on their windows, or throw eggs at their front doors. When I grew up in Michigan, it was mostly harmless fun, but in the past 20 years, Devil's Night is seen as a very dangerous night in Detroit (all nights are dangerous in Detroit.) Here is a link with slightly more information:
http://www.brainyencyclopedia.com/encyclopedia/d/de/devil_s_night.html


- I am a big fan of Harry Houdini. Not because of his amazing magic tricks, but because of the way he would later explain his magic tricks, and debunk other magicians or charlatans who tried to fool the American public. Houdini died on October 31st, 1926 (Halloween) in Detroit (nice lead in from my previous post huh? See! I know what I am doing.) Here is a webpage all about his wonderful life:
http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/amex/houdini/

- The election is 12 days away (November 2nd.) I feel good about Georgie's chances. I certainly feel better about this presidential election than the last one. Kerry's gaffe in the third debate cost him dearly. Now Bush has the lead, and Kerry hasnt dented it. Out of the 15 national polls released after the third debate, Bush leads in 10 of them. His lead, in these polls, ranges from 2 to 8 points. Of the five other polls, the candidates are tied. Kerry doesnt lead in a single poll!

If the election is close, keep your eyes on Ohio. Bush won Ohio by 5 points in 2000, but the unemployment rate is 6.2% there. That's .8 higher than the national average. Five recent Ohio polls have Kerry leading two of them, and Bush leading three of them. Bush is traveling to Ohio with the Governator during the final weekend of the campaign, to shore up support. If the election is a nail-biter, Ohio will be the Florida of 2000. You wont be able to throw a rock in Ohio, without hitting a lawyer.

I have Bush at 51% in the popular vote, and Kerry at 47%. I give Bush 284 electoral votes, to Kerry's 254. That might seem close, but Bush has more options for getting to the magical 270 number. Kerry must win Florida and Ohio. Bush must win Florida (duh!) Bush can lose Ohio and still win, but his chance of victory is much lower if he loses the Buckeye state. Right now I am giving Bush all the states he won four years ago, except I am giving New Hampshire to Kerry, and Wisconsin to Bush.

If Bush maintains this lead up to Halloween, then only an October surprise can save Kerry. Bush has been president for 4 years, and the democrats truly loathe him. If they had nasty dirt to spill on the president, they would have used it by now. If there is an October surprise, it's more likely to hit Kerry, than Bush.

I might update this webpage one more time before the election, to give my final predictions. If Kerry suddenly surges to the lead, then dont expect an update. I am only human, after all. Writing good news for Kerry would simply be too painful.

I am giving the republicans a +3 seat gain in the Senate. There are about a dozen senate races I will watch closely on election night. If I update this webpage again before the election, I will provide a list of the close senate races, for readers to follow.

Enough rambling. I dont link to the LA Times very often, but I found a wonderful page on their website for doing electoral calculations. Take a peek. Clicking on each state will assign it to a candidate. After you finish, post your predictions in my comments page. I would love to see how my friends think the election will turn out. Remember, you can post as anonymous. You dont have to register with blogger.com to post a comment:
http://www.latimes.com/news/politics/election-test-fl,0,1851284.flash

- The first trailer for Revenge of the Sith will appear on the official Star Wars website November 4th. Paying members of the website will get to see it first. I think Revenge of the Sith will be better than Episode 1, and Episode 2, but it still wont be as good as any film from the original trilogy. My insiders are telling me the dialog is still weak, and the acting is poor. What makes it better are the situations and dynamics between the characters. Here is a link with all the information about the first trailer:
http://www.theforce.net/episode3/index.shtml#24994

- I am not a fan of the Alien movies, but I have always thought that their depiction of space-travel is fairly realistic. In the Alien universe, it takes many years to travel from star to star. There is no hyperspace. There is no warp speed. Space travel is slow and tedious. Here is an article about how humans may use hibernation to pass the time while traveling long distances:
http://www.space.com/scienceastronomy/scitues_hibernation_041012.html

- I think the word "genius" is used too lightly in our society. As far as I am concerned, there are only two true geniuses in human history. Albert Einstein, and Wolfgang Amadeus Mozart. Mozart wrote his first piano concerto at the age of 4. His first symphony at the age of 7. His first opera at the age of 11. That would be the equivalent of me writing an early version of Microsoft Windows at the age of 11. Its simply unheard of. These werent lousy compositions either. Orchestras still play his early works, despite being written by a child. Mozart died at the age of 35, which seems young to us, but was near the median age for death in the late 18th century. The cause of his death has always been a mystery. It certainly wasnt caused by Antonio Salieri, the famous composer. Here is an article that proposes to have solved the riddle of Mozart's death:
http://www.canoe.ca/CNEWSWeirdNews0106/11_mozart-ap.html

- Last May, Phoenix passed Philadelphia as the 5th largest city in the United States. I know this because each time Phoenix is about to pass another city in population, my knees swell. It's similiar to the effect of old people who can detect the weather, only much more painful. Here is a link to an article about why Phoenix passed Philadelphia, a link to the most populous cities in the United States, and a link to the most populous metropolitan areas in the world:
http://www.azcentral.com/specials/special27/articles/0617phi-urbanissues20.html

http://www.demographia.com/db-uscity98.htm

http://www.demographia.com/db-world-metro2000.htm

- I can admit it. John Kerry won the first debate. Personally, I thought it was a tie, but I will accept the general consensus. I think Bush will do better in the second debate, and third debate, but I think Kerry will win those too. The margin will be closer though. Kerry got a small bounce out of the first debate, and could get small bounces out of the next two debates, but it wont help much. The fundamentals of the race havent changed. Its still a referendum on the president, and the current state of the country. The same reasons why George Bush had a hefty lead in August and September will be the same reasons why he has a hefty lead in November. Here is an interesting article explaining the same idea. I dont think Georgie will win by a dozen points, but I do think he will win by 5 or 6 points.
http://polipundit.com/index.php?p=4372

- Has the privatization of space begun? Will our grand-kids travel into outer space, with the same attitudes we have towards travelling from Phoenix to Los Angeles? We took a small step in that direction this week. The first privately funded firm has successfully launched a spacecraft into outer space, twice in two weeks. They won 10 million dollars for doing this, but more importantly, they showed it could be done quickly, and safely. These same people will start taking tourists into outer-space starting in 2007. It will only cost you 250 grand! Start saving those pennies. Read this article, to learn more:
http://www.cnn.com/2004/TECH/space/10/04/spaceshipone.attempt.cnn/index.html

- Quite coincidentally, Gordon Cooper, better known as "Gordo" passed away this week. He was one of the original Mercury 7 astronauts. He was played by Dennis Quaid in the movie The Right Stuff. Gordo has a claim to fame which I think will never happen again...he was the last American to go into space alone. Here is an article about his life:
http://www.usatoday.com/tech/science/space/2004-10-04-cooper-obit_x.htm

- I was hoping to avoid writing about politics this week, but I cannot help myself. The news is just too good for Georgie. Although a few polls this week showed the race a tie, the major polls have GWB increasing his lead after the convention. In my opinion (most internet junkies abbreviate it IMO), Bush has a 7 to 8 point lead right now, which is monumental considering the current state of the electorate. Here are links to several websites that try to predict the exact electoral count, and which candidate wins which states. If the election were held today, I have the vote percentage at Bush 53%, Kerry 46%, and the electoral count at Bush 331, Kerry 207.
http://www.electoral-vote.com/
http://www.dalythoughts.com/ecb.htm
http://www.electionprojection.com/
http://www.federalreview.com/compositepoll.htm

- So, did "Gunga" Dan Rather purposely try to hurt the Bush campaign? Hell yes! Unfortunately for Mr. Rather, it did exactly opposite. It probably gave Bush a point or two in the polls. Rather, who has always leaned left, hates the Bush family. He had a major spat with Bush Sr. on national television 16 years ago. Do I think that CBS News purposely created those documents? No. Do I think that CBS News knew those documents were fake? No. Do I think that CBS News did not check the validity of those documents? Yep. They are desperate to find anything that will stick to Georgie. The major news outlets lost their credibility over 12 years ago. Their politics drive their news. They could care less about the truth. They know they have no credibility, so why worry about ruining their own reputations? Getting politicians elected is much more important to them. Did the Kerry campaign send these documents to CBS? It's unclear right now, but reporters (legitimate ones) are looking into it. Here is what they have found so far:
http://news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&cid=694&u=/ap/20040918/ap_on_el_pr/bush_guard_questions&printer=1

- A few nights ago, I watched a PBS documentary about Archimedes. He was an ancient Greek mathematician, who found some very clever ways to solve intriguing problems. He created a system for closely approximating Pi. He also found that putting an object in water can reveal its volume (hence the term "eureka", which is Greek for "I discovered".) Perhaps most importantly, he stumbled upon integral calculus! Unfortunately, the manuscript in which he noted many of these discoveries was written over during the Middle Ages, and disappeared for a thousand years. The manuscript, called The Method, was discovered in 1906, and in 1998 scientists finally have the technology to unravel its secrets. Here is a link to the PBS website about Archimedes, and his discoveries:
http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/nova/archimedes/

- Calculus wouldnt evolve for another 1900 years after Archimedes. Imagine if his discovery of calculus had not been lost, and scientists had been using his ideas for the past 2000 years? We might be living on Mars right now, or telling robots to clean our yards. Speaking of Mars, here is an article about how humans could travel to Mars one day, and what we need to get there:
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/6013385/

- 1939 was a wonderful year for movies. Gone with the Wind, the Wizard of Oz, and Mr. Smith goes to Washington were all released in 1939, but the greatest year for movies was 1989. Here is a list of all the movies released in 1989. When you think about the movies you have seen this year, or want to see later this year, compare those movies to the movies on this list. It's no comparison. Look it over carefully, and I guarantee you will see over a dozen movies you enjoy:
http://www.the-numbers.com/movies/index1989.html

- The Republican convention is over. Between C-SPAN and Fox News, I tried to watch as much of it as I could. I thought Arnie, GWB and Rudy gave the best speeches, in that order. George's speech was good, but not his best speech. His best speech was before congress, after 9/11. I think Georgie will get a 2 to 3 point bounce out of this convention, and considering he is currently up 2 or 3 points, that should give him a lead of 5 to 6 points. That doesnt sound like much, but let me offer you these two points:
1. There are not many undecided voters left this election year, so any shift in public opinion is important.
2. No modern presidential candidate, with a lead of 5 points or greater on Labor day, has lost the election.
Let me put it another way....who would you rather be right now, George Bush, or John "I am holding desperate, midnight rallies" Kerry? You would certainly rather be George Bush right now. Here is an article by Dick Morris, who has a nice take on the president's speech. I am not a fan of Morris's political musings, but I think he gives an accurate critique of the speech:
http://www.nypost.com/postopinion/opedcolumnists/28023.htm

- Have I already posted an article about futuristic, flying cars? I am too lazy to scroll down and see if I have. Regardless, here is a new article about how scientists want to end urban grid-lock, by introducing flying cars:
http://www.usatoday.com/travel/news/2004-08-30-flying-cars_x.htm

- I thought I would have trouble getting into the new Batman movie. After all, virtually the whole damn cast and crew is British. Well, I have been reading things that are changing my mind. Sounds like Bats is really screwed up in this movie. Check out this article:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/arts/main.jhtml?xml=/arts/2004/08/28/bfbat28.xml&sSheet=/arts/200

- Football is back! Football is back! The dreaded Arizona summer-doldrums are ending. The first full weekend of college football starts this Saturday, and the NFL season kicks-off this Thursday. Here is an article previewing the big college football games this weekend. On a related note, anyone notice the high number of NFL players who are Republicans? Jim Kelly, Lynn Swann, Jason Sehorn, and Jack Kemp were all at the Republican convention. Tom Brady sat next to Laura Bush during the last State of the Union address. Joe Montana, Troy Aiken, and Roger Staubach have all campaigned for past Republican candidates.
http://sports.espn.go.com/ncf/columns/story?columnist=herbstreit_kirk&id=1873293